BN's Inspiration In Manik Urai

IN my most recent post, I gave Najib two thumbs up for his first 100 days in office. I was convinced (and am even more so after recent events in Manik Urai) that he was the right person to take country forward after Mahathir.

However, despite my confidence in Najib, I have to say I was a little surprised at some of the more daring announcements he made recently. After all, there was yet another by election coming up, this one in an area that is very Malay and traditionally pro the opposition. But Najib is made of sterner stuff than I! Not for him the easy way out! He wasn’t about to shirk his responsibilities and do the popular thing. It would have made sense, and made life a lot easier for him and his team if he had delayed some of the more contentious announcements till after the by election.

But Najib understands the bigger picture. Of course he wanted to win Manik Urai. He’s a politician and politicians don’t fight by elections to lose them. They fight to win. But although he will have dearly wanted to win the by election, the bigger picture is the country, its competitiveness and its position in the world order. Najib understands that no more time can be lost addressing national issues. These issues must be addressed and addressed fast, even if it means losing by elections. This shows an unexpected but welcome political maturity.

But what came next was certainly a shock to many political observers. In the midst of an economic slowdown, with job losses across the board and in all industries, it took a lot of guts and self belief to tell the Malays, especially on the eve of a by election in a constituency with 12,293 predominantly Malay voters that he was scrapping the 30% Bumiputera requirement for companies seeking public listing.

Though he cushioned this politically daring statement by announcing a U turn in the governments approach to teaching Science and Maths in English but the bigger issue is that Najib is acutely aware of the need to make Malaysia a more competitive country.

But what would be the response of the voters? Would they see what was going on as beneficial to the country or would they be more focused on the local issues that affect them? Well, I believe that although BN didn’t win Manik Urai, the fact that they reduced the majority from 1,352 votes to a mere 65 votes, a turnaround of roughly 95% qualifies as a moral victory, especially in a seat that PAS has only ever lost twice and has ruled since 1990. I believe therefore that this was a healthy endorsement of Najib, his style of leadership and approach.

The pessimists thought that BN might be in for a shock in Manik Urai at the end of June when Najib stated that many people were disappointed that the unity talks had not happened. PR reacted by announcing a huge rally for 100,000 people but only 5,000 turned up. This was a clear signal that lines of communication within PR were failing and that the rift in the top leadership at PAS between one faction that wants closer ties with UMNO and the other faction that prefers to go it alone is approaching boiling point. As campaigning continued, the absence of Nasharudin Mat Isa was a clear sign that all was not well. The question would be, can UMNO capitalize on this?

Certainly UMNO seized on the crisis in PAS during the campaign period. UMNO was quick to communicate to voters that they were disappointed that PAS would not sit at the same table as UMNO and that this was blocking the attempts by UMNO to unify the Malays.

And the voters bought it. On polling day, as the results came in, there were times when UMNO was leading the unofficial count. At the end of the day, UMNO actually won 5 out 9 of the polling districts. Interestingly, the four districts won by PAS were in the more remote areas. Furthermore, and this is a crucial sign for the General Election, UMNO youth came out on top in securing the youth vote.

As the results came in there were whispers of an upset. The whispers prompted PAS to announce that it won by an increased majority (2,000) an hour before polling had even ended. Another poorly thought out tactic by the increasingly agitated opposition that is fast earning a reputation for poor decision making.

So as the dust settles, what should we make of the Manik Urai by election result?

Undoubtedly the fractions within PAS are a concern for the PR and more importantly, the voters. The way the party dealt with the Nasharudin Mat Isa issues showed a lack of maturity that was not missed by those voters. UMNO managed the campaign well, beginning with the appointment of Dato Mustapha Mohamed as UMNO chief liason officer for Kelantan. But UMNO also put a great deal of effort and resources into this by Election, made promises that would have significantly improved the lives of many in Kelantan and yet still lost the by Election.

Overall, I see the result as more positive for UMNO than PAS. PAS has got some real internal problems, and is over promising and under performing. Moreover Nik Aziz is losing support.

Meanwhile, Najib’s increased popularity, as reported by the Merdeka Centre was comprehensively endorsed by the voters of Manik Urai. Najib is seen as the future of UMNO and voters have bought into him and his policies.

Winning Votes Through Social Media Marketing

YET again, Malaysia finds herself heading towards another by election in Manek Urai in Kelantan on 14th July 2009. Once again, the internet and in particular, social media or peer to peer networks, will play a vital role in the outcome.

What makes it even more interesting is that the Barisan Nasional government was slow to grasp the significance of the internet, as identified extensively in the 2008 GE post mortem. But since then, the ruling party has moved fast to adapt to the Internet and in particular social media such as Facebook (facebook.com) and twitter (twitter.com).

And this makes a lot of sense because the internet and most recently, social networks, are some of the most effective tools for the government to communicate with citizens, and especially the younger generation of new voters who are or soon will be, eligible to vote in the next General Election.

Social media has been something of a revolution in the political arena both here and around the world. This revolution, especially in the political arena, can be traced back to My.BarackObama.com or MyBO for short. This wonderfully innovative, intuitive and easy to use networking site encouraged Barrack Obama supporters to connect with each other, create groups, organize events and even raise funds for the Obama campaign! By the time the US election campaign ended, supporters of Barack Obama, all of them volunteers, had created over 2 million profiles, planned and organized more than 200,000 offline events, posted 400,000 blog posts, formed 35,000 related groups and raised an astonishing US$30million (RM105 million) via fund raising pages managed by 70,000 individuals!

Although the Malaysian General Election of 2008 carried real time reports on many news websites and Blogs, there was less use of social media to engage citizens.

But this is sure to change in the forthcoming By election and future By elections and General Elections. In fact, things are already changing and no one has moved quicker than the PM who has reached out to the Rakyat through a number of Social Media initiatives, most recently via twitter where he has, at the time of writing this article, 2,164 followers.

Surprisingly, because they were considered to have understood the power of social media quicker than the ruling party, the opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim has 1,341 followers, over 1,000 less than Najib Razak. Interestingly too, Najib tweets almost entirely in English whilst Anwar tweets almost entirely in Malay.

I was unable to verify if this is a genuine account http://twitter.com/anwaribrahim but it certainly appears official. Unfortunately, it does little more than offer links to supportive articles or forthcoming events. Najib’s account http://twitter.com/NajibRazak meanwhile is little more than a public diary. Barrack Obama’s Twitter account http://twitter.com/BARACKOBAMA on the other hand, offers a constant supply of useful material related to key issues affecting voters. In fact, this is what makes Barrack Obama’s Twitter account so fresh, exciting and popular. It focuses not on him but on the American people. Little wonder then that at the time of writing he has 1,610,589 followers!

Twitter is set to become something of a political phenomen by the time the country has its next General Election. And beware those who use it incorrectly! Every tweet (comment made by a person with a Twitter account) is recorded and each tweet is searchable on the Internet. This makes Twitter very transparent . Comments can also be retweeted which means someone thinks enough of your comment to forward it on to others who forward it on and so forth.

A recent example of the political power of Twitter came after the General Election in Iran. In fact, many are calling the protests in Iran the “Twitter Revolution.” Because, according to the Pew Research Centre, during the week of 15th – 19th June, an incredible 98% of the links from Twitter were about Iran. The tweets provided instant reports and updates in real time, of events in Iran, and in particular Tehran.

Admittedly, it was difficult to verify the sources of some of the information. And skeptical media watchers and analysts speculated that many of the tweets could have been part of a deliberate campaign, perhaps by the opposition (isn’t that what oppositions everywhere do?) to distort the truth.

So, although the source and authenticity of the post Iran election tweets is unclear, what is clear is the power of this tool and the information within these tweets and the speed with which they are distributed (retweeted). This clearly shows that this dynamic tool must be adopted and managed effectively by politicians of all persuasions.

It is important to understand that as a political branding tool, Twitter won’t work on its own. It should be seen as an additional channel in the increasingly large and integrated branding mix. Just like any other channel, there should be a plan that includes goals and how you are going to achieve them.

And in an increasingly digital world, the ability of the political parties to use social media marketing and in particular tools such as Twitter, will be key to winning votes in the next General Election.